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2004 National Election In order to win in the predominantly Democratic state of California, Republican candidates in presidential races have traditionally had to win elections by landslides in GOP strongholds such as Orange County. If the 2004 election were held today, 46 percent of Orange County residents say they would vote to re-elect George W. Bush as president, while 34 percent would vote for the Democratic nominee. In our PPIC Statewide Survey in September, the results were nearly the reverse: Forty-six percent of California adults preferred the Democratic nominee and 37 percent would vote for Bush. National surveys indicate that Americans are evenly divided between Bush and the Democratic nominee, according to the CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll and the ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Support for President Bush’s re-election increases to an 18-point
gap among those most likely to vote in Orange County: Fifty-one percent
would vote for President Bush and 33 percent for the Democratic nominee.
As would be expected, there are large partisan differences in voting
preferences: 81 percent of Republicans, 29 percent of independents,
and 18 percent of Democrats would vote for Bush. In their local congressional races, Orange County residents favor
Republicans over Democrats by an 8-point margin (43% to 35%), while
the partisan gap grows to 16 points for likely voters (48% to 32%).
Most Democrats say they will vote for Democratic candidates, most
Republicans for GOP candidates. However, at this point, one in three
independent voters would not give the nod to either of the major
parties in their local races. Latinos favor Democrats over the GOP
(47% to 30%), while whites favor the GOP over Democrats (50% to 28%).
The edge for Republicans is more narrow in the North County (42%
to 37%) than in the South County (45% to 30%).
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