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Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence in Orange County has not recovered from its sharp dive in 2001. The Orange County Consumer Confidence
Index now stands at 90, registering a 3-point decline since last year and a 22-point decline since 2000. Still, the Orange
County index is higher than the national index, which recently stood at 81, after declining 11 points since 2001 and 28 points
since 2000.
The Consumer Confidence Index for Orange County is calculated using a nationally recognized formula provided by the University
of Michigan, which computes scores for each of five questions, then adjusts for the 1966 base period. A score above 100 on the
Confidence Index is considered very good; the average national score over the past 50 years is 85. Findings for the individual
items that make up the Orange County index:
- The greatest decline since last year is in the perception of personal finances, as they relate to the previous year.
Today, 50 percent of Orange County residents say their financial situation is better than in 2001, and 30 percent say it is
worse. Last year, 55 percent said they were better off financially than in the previous year, and 21 percent said they were
worse off.
- The percentages saying they will be better off next year (47%) and saying they will be worse off (8%) have changed very
little since 2001. Fewer people today (41%) than in 2001 (45%) expect their current financial condition to remain the
same.
- Orange County residents continue to be uncertain about the U.S. economy over the next 12 months: 47 percent expect good
economic times and 44 percent expect bad economic times. Last year, a similar 48 percent expected good times and 45 percent
expected bad times.
- The long-term outlook for the U.S. economy remains as mixed today as it was last year:
46 percent anticipate good economic times over the next five years, while 44 percent expect
bad times. One year ago, 46 percent predicted good times, and 45 percent expected bad times.
- Orange County residents remain bullish on buying, despite their mixed outlook on personal finances and the economy.
Today, 61 percent of residents think that this is a good time to make major purchases, while just 28 percent call it a bad
time. Last year, 63 percent thought that it was a good time to buy, and 26 percent thought it was a bad time.
In general, higher-income residents express more economic confidence than lower-income residents. Whites are more likely than
Latinos to expect the economy to be in good shape five years from now (50% to 38%) and to consider today a good time to make
major purchases (66% to 52%). Nonetheless, when it comes to personal finances, Latinos are more likely than whites to say that
they are better off now than a year ago (57% to 46%) and that they will be better off a year from now than today (55% to
44%).
Five-Question Consumer Confidence Index
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All Adults |
| |
‘86 |
‘87 |
‘88 |
‘89 |
‘90 |
‘91 |
‘92 |
‘93 |
‘94 |
‘95 |
‘96 |
‘97 |
‘98 |
‘99 |
‘00 |
‘01 |
‘02 |
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Orange County |
109 |
104 |
106 |
105 |
85 |
84 |
75 |
73 |
89 |
90 |
101 |
110 |
105 |
111 |
112 |
93 |
90 |
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United States |
92 |
94 |
95 |
96 |
76 |
82 |
77 |
75 |
92 |
94 |
95 |
107 |
100 |
105 |
109 |
92 |
81 |
Source for Orange County from 1986 to 2000 is Orange County Annual Survey at UCI by Mark
Baldassare and Cheryl Katz. Source for the United States is the University of Michigan; October 2002 figures were the most
current at time of publication.
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