UCI

Irvine, Calif., June 26, 2000 — Satisfaction with the Orange County way of life remains at near-record levels, but there is less certainty about the future, according to UC Irvine's 2000 Orange County Annual Survey.

As the best of times in Orange County continue, 79 percent of residents say the county's economy is in good or excellent shape, and 91 percent give its quality of life a positive rating. Three in four homeowners say buying a home here is an excellent or good investment, nine in 10 are satisfied with job opportunities in the region, and the Orange County consumer confidence index stands at a record 112, topping the national index.

On the future, however, opinion is divided. In 2020, 32 percent think Orange County will be a worse place to live, 31 percent think it will be a better place, and 31 percent think there will be no change.

"We are in historic times, a period of unsurpassed confidence in the economy and satisfaction with the quality of life in Orange County. People's views of the wonderful times they live in are reflected in the survey," said Mark Baldassare, professor of urban and regional planning in UCI's School of Social Ecology and co-director of the survey with research associate Cheryl Katz.

Baldassare continued: "As we enjoy one of the strongest economies the county and the state ever have had, we're also seeing fears about what's not being taken care of. People are concerned about fundamental issues such as the environment, access to education and employment and the widening gap between rich and poor, and worry that quality of life in the future may be compromised."

Other survey findings include (see related reading):

A digital divide that separates the three in four Orange County residents using computers and the two in three using the Internet from groups that aren't yet wired-Latinos, seniors, North County residents, the less educated and the less affluent.

Opinions on quality-of-life-concerns such as preserving the environment, as well as certain social issues, that belie the region's conservative image. Most residents endorse stricter environmental laws and gun controls, support access to abortion without government interference and approve of gays serving openly in the military.

The 19th Orange County Annual Survey was conducted by telephone May 3 to 14, using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers. Interviews of 1,005 randomly selected adult household members were conducted in English and Spanish. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent at the 95-percent confidence level.

Following is a summary of the survey's key findings:

Overall mood
Since 1995, ratings of the Orange County economy have risen 60 points, with 79 percent today saying the economy is excellent or good, 17 percent saying fair and only 2 percent saying poor. High earners ($80,000 or more annually) are more positive than those earning less than $36,000 (93 percent to 62 percent). Non-Hispanic whites, people older than 35 and South County residents also are more likely to give good or excellent ratings.

Ninety-one percent give a positive rating to the county's quality of life, with non-Hispanic whites, the more affluent, and South County residents most likely to say things are going very well.

In the face of large housing price increases, Orange County residents continue to be positive about the real estate market. Seventy-five percent of homeowners and 57 percent of renters say buying a home in Orange County is a good investment.

Regional conditions
As Orange County residents' satisfaction with local job opportunities has increased in the past two years, so have complaints about housing costs and traffic.

Nine in 10 residents are satisfied with job opportunities in their region, with 43 percent very satisfied (compared with 33 percent very satisfied in 1998) and 48 percent somewhat satisfied. The proportion of those who are very satisfied is higher in South County (48 percent) than in North County (42 percent). Satisfaction also is higher among those who are older, more affluent and non-Hispanic whites.

"We're seeing striking north-south differences, with people in the south more satisfied with job opportunities but less satisfied with housing affordability than people in the north," Katz said.

While two in three in the county are satisfied with the availability of housing they can afford in their region, only 17 percent are very satisfied (compared with 22 percent very satisfied in 1998), and 34 percent are not satisfied. Again, those most likely to say they are very satisfied are older, more affluent and non-Hispanic whites. South County residents are more likely to say not satisfied than those in North County (38 percent to 32 percent).

Concerns about the region's traffic congestion also are increasing, with 34 percent calling it a big problem today, compared with 26 percent in 1999. Traffic is seen as a big problem more often in the north than in the south (38 percent to 26 percent).

Orange County in 2020
"Residents are very positive about the present, but when we look at the future, they're much cooler. Most think the economic gap between haves and have-nots will get even wider, and that the natural environment will deteriorate," Katz said. Most Orange County residents expect to see improvements in economic conditions (61 percent), race relations (61 percent) and public schools (58 percent). At the same time, many think the gap between rich and poor will grow (64 percent), the natural environment will get worse (57 percent) and the crime rate will increase (49 percent).

Latinos hold the brightest views-44 percent think the county will be a better place to live in 20 years. In contrast, nearly four in 10 non-Hispanic whites and South County residents think the county will be a worse place to live. Latinos also are more optimistic about public schools in the future than non-Hispanic whites are, 68 percent to 56 percent. Latinos are less optimistic about the future of race relations-54 percent say race relations will improve, compared with 63 percent of non-Hispanic whites.

"Latinos have high hopes as they find themselves participating in a burgeoning economy, which gives them a bright outlook for today and optimism for the future," said Katz.

South County residents have greater expectations that economic conditions will improve than do North County residents (66 percent to 59 percent), but they're more negative about the future of the environment (63 percent to 55 percent).

Most important problem
Once again, crime tops Orange County's list of most important problems, as it has every year since 1993. Twenty-four percent say crime is the county's number one problem, 17 percent say schools, 15 percent say the El Toro airport issue (up from 9 percent in 1999), 11 percent say transportation, 6 percent say housing and 5 percent say growth.
In South County, 31 percent say El Toro airport is the county's biggest problem, while it's mentioned by only 8 percent in the north. Concern has increased in the region, however-in 1999, 20 percent in the south and 4 percent in the north rated it the most important problem.

"El Toro airport has moved up and is now tied with schools as the most important problem," Katz said. "People have come to focus on the El Toro airport in the past year-it's a tough issue that is affecting residents' views of their county leaders."

Concern about crime is greater in the north than in the south (29 percent to 12 percent), and it is greater among Latinos than among non-Hispanic whites (40 percent to 21 percent).

Public schools
Orange County residents think their schools are doing a good job, but with inadequate funding.

Local public schools get high marks from 54 percent of the county's residents, with 13 percent saying they're excellent and 41 percent saying good. But 58 percent think the current level of funding for local schools is inadequate. Only 34 percent think schools receive sufficient funds, and 10 percent say the schools get more than enough.

"Most people think their schools don't receive enough funding, but many are not willing to vote for a tax hike to increase school funds," Katz said.

Less than half (47 percent) would vote for a tax increase if their schools needed much more money. Fifty percent of those with children in public schools would vote for a tax increase.

A proposal to make it possible to pass school bonds with a 55-percent majority instead of the current two-thirds vote falls short of a simple majority, with 48 percent in favor and 40 percent opposed.

As in previous surveys, six in 10 favor tax-supported school vouchers, with support stronger among Latinos (71 percent) and Republicans (67 percent) than among non-Hispanic whites (57 percent) and Democrats (51 percent).

Transportation
Dissatisfaction with freeways is building-only 22 percent say the current system is satisfactory, compared with 25 percent in the 1999 survey.

"We're seeing a slight downward trend in satisfaction with freeways, with more unhappiness in the north," Katz said.

Fifty percent of Orange County residents want more lanes added and 28 percent would build new freeways. The number wanting new freeways is up four points since 1999. As in previous surveys, residents are more satisfied in the south (26 percent) than in the north (20 percent).

Eighteen percent of employed people say they encounter major traffic problems during their commute, 45 percent say some problems, and 37 percent say no problems. Twenty percent of North County workers experience major traffic problems, compared with 13 percent in South County.

Measure M, the half-cent sales tax that funds freeway projects, public transit and local street improvements, continues to be popular. Two in three residents are satisfied with the way funds are being spent, and 57 percent would vote to extend it when it expires in 2011. But support for extending the sales tax is lower than the two-thirds majority required.

Housing
Orange County residents are paying more for housing, with 29 percent of renters-up four points from 1999-and 49 percent of homeowners paying more than $1,000 per month for housing. While the proportion of homeowners paying more than $1,000 is unchanged from 1999, one in four homeowners now pay more than $1,500 per month, a six-point increase from 1999.

As housing costs increase, the American dream of home ownership continues to elude many Orange County Latinos. Only 35 percent of Latinos own their own homes, compared with 72 percent of non-Hispanic whites and 63 percent in the county as a whole. Latinos also are less likely than non-Hispanic whites to live in single-family homes (35 percent to 58 percent).

South County residents are more likely to be homeowners than North County residents (72 percent to 60 percent) and to make mortgage payments of more than $1,000 (60 percent to 44 percent). Renters also are more likely to pay more than $1,000 per month in the south (55 percent) than in the north (22 percent).

El Toro airport
As reported earlier, public support has eroded, even in North County, for conversion of the former El Toro Marine Corps Air Station into an international airport. Fewer than half of Orange County residents think the airport will ever be built.

Only 35 percent in the county favor having a commercial airport at El Toro, and 54 percent are opposed. In North County, opponents for the first time outnumber supporters, 45 percent to 41 percent, while 78 percent in South County oppose the airport.

Opinions on the Board of Supervisors' handling of the airport issue are even more unfavorable than in 1999: 49 percent disapprove of the job the supervisors have done, and fewer than one in four approve. The number of negative opinions has increased seven points since September.

County government
"Perceptions of county government declined sharply to levels we haven't seen since the bankruptcy. Disappointment with county officials has really taken its toll on respect for government," said Baldassare.

Approval of county government dropped from 40 percent in 1999 to 29 percent who now say county officials are excellent or good at solving county problems. The percentage of those who say county leaders pay a lot or some attention to what the people think has dropped from 62 percent in 1999 to 54 percent in the 2000 survey. 
And the number who think county government wastes a lot of tax money has risen to 42 percent, up from 35 percent last year.

"We see a dramatic drop this year, especially in ratings of county leaders' ability to solve problems. The way things have gone with planning for the base conversion has damaged people's confidence in county leaders," Katz said.

There is disapproval from both sides of the airport controversy: only 31 percent of those in favor of the airport and 26 percent of those opposed say county government does an excellent or good job in solving local problems.

UCI's Orange County Annual Survey is the most comprehensive study of the political, social and economic attitudes of Orange County residents. Baldassare, who holds the Roger W. and Janice M. Johnson Endowed Chair in Civic Governance and Public Management in UCI's School of Social Ecology, has conducted it since 1982.