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Orange County consumer confidence again
sets records, tops national index, 2000 UC Irvine Orange County Annual
Survey finds
Long-term economic
optimism surpasses 1999 record
Irvine, Calif., June 1, 2000 — Unfazed
by a volatile stock market and rising home prices, Orange County consumers
registered record-setting highs in confidence in the national economy
and long-term economic optimism, according to UC Irvine's 2000 Orange
County Annual Survey.
The Orange County Consumer Confidence Index has reached 112-a new high
since the survey began tracking it in 1986. And for the fifth consecutive
year, the Orange County index is higher than the U.S. Consumer Confidence
Index, now at 109. The Orange County index is up one point since the
1999 survey conducted in September, while the U.S. index rose four points
in that time.
Optimism for the year ahead is unchanged from the 1999 survey: 70 percent
think the national economy will remain strong and 14 percent see bad
times ahead. Over the next five years, however, 60 percent of Orange
County residents predict continued good times for the economy, while
21 percent expect bad times. The 39-point gap between optimists and
pessimists exceeds even last year's record gap of 33 points.
"Orange County's exuberant consumer confidence has survived a year of
soaring housing prices and wild stock market swings," said UCI Professor
Mark Baldassare, co-director of the survey with research associate Cheryl
Katz. "Most people are finding themselves in good financial shape today
and are looking forward to continued strong economic times for at least
the next half-decade."
Findings of the consumer confidence portion of the 2000 UCI Orange County
Annual Survey include the following:
Similar to the 1999 survey, 53 percent say they are better
off financially now than a year ago; only 13 percent are worse off.
Fifty-one percent expect to be better off financially
next year than they are now, and 5 percent think they will be worse
off.
Orange County residents, as in the 1999 survey, are still
in a spending mood: 70 percent think now is a good time for major purchases
such as furniture and appliances, and only 10 percent think it's a bad
time.
Latinos' confidence in the economy remains strong, with
58 percent-the same as in 1999-saying they are better off now than last
year and 60 percent expecting to be better off next year. The Consumer
Confidence Index for Latinos is 109.
"Although consumer confidence is quite high overall, there
are some striking differences between the county's haves and have-nots,"
Katz said.
The consumer confidence index for those with annual incomes of less than
$36,000 stands at 103. Fewer than half (44 percent) say they're better
off this year than last, and only 47 percent expect to be better off next
year.
But it was a very good year for those earning $80,000 or more annually.
With a confidence index of 121, 64 percent of the high-income group say
they are better off this year than last, and 62 percent expect to be better
off next year than now.
The 19th Orange County Annual Survey was conducted by telephone May 3
to 14, using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers.
Interviews of 1,005 randomly selected adult household members were conducted
in English and Spanish.
The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent at the 95-percent
confidence level. The survey includes five questions that also are used
in the national consumer confidence survey conducted by the University
of Michigan. The Consumer Confidence Index is calculated from scores for
each question, adjusted by the 1966 base period score of 100. A score
of 100 is considered very good, as 85 is the average score over the 50
years the national survey has been conducted. UCI's Orange County Annual
Survey is the most comprehensive study of the political, social and economic
attitudes of Orange County residents. Baldassare, who holds the Roger
W. and Janice M. Johnson Endowed Chair in Civic Governance and Public
Management in UCI's School of Social
Ecology, has conducted it since 1982. Complete results of the survey,
which includes Orange County residents' views on housing, education, quality
of life and other issues, will be released later this month.
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