UCI

Irvine, Calif., May 24, 2000 — Ending a longstanding deadlock, a majority of Orange County residents now say they are opposed to a commercial airport at El Toro, and fewer than half think it ever will be built, according to UC Irvine's 2000 Orange County Annual Survey.

Fifty-four percent-an eight-point increase from the 1999 survey-oppose and 35 percent are in favor of converting the former El Toro Marine Corps Air Station into an international airport. In the 1999 survey, 46 percent opposed and 42 percent favored 
the airport.

In the wake of the passage of Measure F, which requires two-thirds approval to build the airport, 49 percent of county residents now think it is unlikely that the airport will ever be built, with 25 percent saying it is somewhat unlikely and 24 percent saying very unlikely. Only 43 percent think it is likely that El Toro will be developed as an international airport, with 29 percent saying somewhat likely and 14 percent very likely.
"Many people are now convinced the new airport will never come to pass. In fact, more people see it as an impossibility than a reality," said Cheryl Katz, co-director of the survey with UCI Professor Mark Baldassare.

Questions about the El Toro airport are included in the 19th Orange County Annual Survey of residents' views on housing, education, quality of life and other issues.

As in previous surveys, opinion on the airport is divided along North-South lines-but that gap is closing. For the first time, airport opponents in North County outnumber supporters, 45 percent to 41 percent, compared with 37 percent opposed and 48 percent in favor of the airport in the 1999 survey. Opposition has grown in South County as well, with 78 percent opposed and 18 percent in favor of the airport. In the 1999 survey, 71 percent in South County opposed the airport and 25 percent favored it.

In addition, approval of the way county government has handled the airport development issue has reached a new low. Forty-nine percent disapprove of the job the Board of Supervisors has done in planning for the base reuse, an increase of seven points since last September. Twenty-three percent approve of the way supervisors handled the issue, compared with 30 percent in the 1999 survey. Even among airport supporters, only four in 10 approve of the way the issue has been handled.

"After hearing all the pros and cons of the airport over the past few months during the Measure F campaign, people have lost confidence in the ability of their county leaders to plan and carry out this project," Baldassare said.

The survey also asks how residents would most prefer to meet Orange County's air travel needs: have John Wayne as the only airport, close John Wayne and have El Toro as the only airport, or have both airports in operation. Fifty percent say they want John Wayne as the county's only commercial airport, 32 percent want to develop El Toro as an international airport and continue to use John Wayne as a commercial airport, and 7 percent want to close John Wayne and have El Toro as the county's main airport. In South County, 71 percent want John Wayne only, and 19 percent want both airports. In comparison, 43 percent in North County want John Wayne only, and 37 percent want both airports.

The survey was conducted by telephone from May 3 to 14, using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers. Interviews of 1,005 randomly selected adult household members were conducted in English and Spanish. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent at the 95-percent confidence level.

UCI's Orange County Annual Survey is the most comprehensive study of the political, social and economic attitudes of Orange County residents. Baldassare, who is the Roger W. and Janice M. Johnson Endowed Chair in Civic Governance and Public Management in UCI's School of Social Ecology, and Katz have conducted it since 1982. Complete results of the survey will be released in June.