UCI

Orange County’s exuberant consumer confidence has survived a year of soaring housing prices and wild stock market swings.

The Orange County Consumer Confidence Index now stands at 112, which is a new high since we began tracking these questions in 1986. Nationwide, the Consumer Confidence Index stands at 109, according to the University of Michigan. The Consumer Confidence Index is calculated from a formula provided by the University of Michigan, which computes scores for each of five questions (better - worse + 100), then adjusts by the 1966 base period. The national index score was 100 in 1966. A score of 100 or more is considered very good, since 85 is the national average score over the 50 years the survey has been conducted. Here are the results for the individual items that make up the five-question Consumer Confidence Index:

  70% think the national economy will continue to be strong during the coming year, while 14% predict bad times. Optimism is unchanged from 1999;

  60% expect continued good economic times nationwide during the next five years, while 21% expect bad times. The number with negative views is down 4 points from last year.

  53% say that are financially better off now than a year ago, while only 13% are worse off. The gap between those who are better off and those who are worse off is similar to last year;

  51% expect to be financially better off next year than they are now, while 5% think they will be worse off. The number with bright expectations is unchanged from 1999;

  70% think now is a good time for major purchases, while only 10% call it a bad time. This highly positive attitude toward spending is unchanged from last year.

Latinos continue to display strong economic confidence, with 58% saying they are better off now than last year and 60% expecting to be better off next year. The Consumer Confidence Index is 109 for Latinos, similar to the countywide average and unchanged from 1999.

Not everyone is benefiting equally from the current economy. For residents with annual household incomes below $36,000, the Consumer Confidence Index is 103. For those in the middle income-group of $36,000 and $79,999, the Index score is 116. But those with incomes of $80,000 or more are the most exuberant of all, with a Consumer Confidence Index at 121 points.

FIVE-QUESTION CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

ORANGE COUNTY ANNUAL SURVEYS, UCI; UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN