UCI

Irvine, Calif., Oct. 4, 1999 — Public opinion remains deadlocked on plans to develop a commercial airport at the El Toro Marine Corps Air Station, according to UC Irvine’s 1999 Orange County Annual Survey.
For the third consecutive year, the survey finds opinions for and against the proposed airport too closely matched to call: 42 percent say they’re in favor of converting the Marine base into an international airport, 46 percent are opposed, and 12 percent are undecided, despite aggressive efforts on both sides to persuade voters. These numbers are virtually identical to those in the 1998 and 1997 surveys.
Opinion continues to break down sharply along regional lines, with the strongest opposition in South County. North County residents favor an international airport at El Toro by a margin of 11 points (48 percent to 37 percent), while South County residents oppose the airport by a 46-point margin (71 percent to 25 percent).
UCI Professor Mark Baldassare, who co-directed the survey with research associate Cheryl Katz, said: “Orange County continues to be deeply divided about the future of El Toro Marine base. Both sides have escalated efforts to sway residents, but they haven’t changed anyone’s mind. It’s not as if people haven’t followed the issue--they have. But the information they’ve been given hasn’t had much effect.”
Katz added: “People just can’t agree on whether or not to have a major airport at El Toro--most already have made up their minds and they’re unwilling to budge.”
Questions about the El Toro airport are included in the 18th Orange County Annual Survey of residents’ views on housing, education, quality of life and other issues. The survey was conducted by phone from Sept. 1 to 13, using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers. Interviews of 1,000 randomly selected adult household members were conducted in English and Spanish. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.
In addition to asking residents’ opinions on a new international airport at El Toro, the survey also asks respondents how they would most prefer to meet Orange County’s air travel needs: have John Wayne as the county’s only airport, close John Wayne and have El Toro as the county’s only airport, or have both airports in operation.
About half--47 percent--of those surveyed say they would prefer to have John Wayne Airport as the county’s only commercial airport, while 36 percent would prefer to have an airport at El Toro and continue to use John Wayne Airport as well. Only 10 percent want to close John Wayne and have El Toro as the county’s only airport. North County residents are evenly divided between a preference for having both El Toro and John Wayne airports in operation and having John Wayne Airport only. In South County, two-thirds prefer to meet Orange County’s air travel needs with John Wayne Airport alone.
North and South County residents are in agreement in one area, however--neither side is happy with the way county government is handling the El Toro airport conversion issue.
“Most don’t feel county government has given the kind of leadership they’d want,” Baldassare said. “It’s not just North County or South County--people all over the county are disappointed. The board itself is as divided as the people they represent.”
Only 30 percent of county residents approve of the way county government is handling the issue, while 42 percent disapprove. In the north, 31 percent approve and 36 percent disapprove. In the south, 25 percent approve and 61 percent disapprove.
UCI's Orange County Annual Survey is the most comprehensive study of the political, social and economic attitudes of Orange County residents. Baldassare, who holds the Roger W. and Janice M. Johnson Endowed Chair in Civic Governance and Public Management in UCI's School of Social Ecology, has conducted it since 1982.
Complete results of the 1999 survey will be released in November.