UCI

Irvine, Calif., Sept. 27, 1999 — Consumer confidence among Orange County residents has reached an all-time high, outpacing the nation as a whole, according to UC Irvine's 1999 Orange County Annual Survey.
Orange County's Consumer Confidence Index is 111—the highest score since the annual survey began tracking it in 1986 and a six-point increase over the 1998 survey score of 105. Nationwide, the Consumer Confidence Index climbed to 105—a five-point increase from 1998.
A resounding 71 percent of Orange County residents surveyed say they expect good times for the U.S. economy next year—a 12-point increase since 1998. A record 58 percent believe the good times will continue over the next five years.
UCI Professor Mark Baldassare, who co-directed the survey with research associate Cheryl Katz, said: "It's hard to imagine how things could look brighter for Orange County consumers than they do today. The county is in a sustained period of job growth, low inflation and housing appreciation. Worries about the Asian markets have evaporated, and most now see continued good times both for themselves and the United States as a whole."
Only 25 percent expect bad times over the next five years. "The 33-point gap between optimists and pessimists is the most positive long-term U.S. outlook we have on record," Baldassare said.
The 18th Orange County Annual Survey was conducted by phone from Sept. 1-13, using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers. Interviews of 1,000 randomly selected adult household members were conducted in English and Spanish. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent at the 95-percent confidence level. The survey includes five questions that also are used in the national consumer confidence survey conducted by the University of Michigan. The Consumer Confidence Index is calculated from scores for each question, adjusted by the 1966 base period score of 100. A score of 100 is considered very good.
Responses to individual questions on the 1999 consumer confidence portion of the Orange County Annual Survey include the following:

• Fifty-five percent say they're better off financially now than a year ago, while only 12 percent are worse off. In the 1998 survey, 51 percent said they were better off and 15 percent said they were worse off.
• Fifty-one percent expect to be better off a year from now; 4 percent expect to be worse off. In 1998, 49 percent said they expected to be better off in the next year, and 5 percent expected to be worse off.
• A positive attitude toward spending continues from last year, with 72 percent saying now is a good time to buy big-ticket items such as furniture and major appliances. Only 12 percent say it's a bad time.

Confidence also is high among Orange County Latinos: 58 percent say they are financially better off now than last year—a seven-point rise since 1998. And to Latinos, the future looks even better: 61 percent expect to be better off next year, compared with 51 percent of all Orange County residents. The overall consumer confidence score for Latinos is 110—up five points since last year.
"Latinos appear to be sharing in Orange County's economic boom," Katz said. "They're perceiving themselves in a strong position, and they're looking forward to a very bright future.
"On the whole, people in Orange County are very, very positive. They feel better off today, and look forward to continuing gains in the coming year. The economy has been strong nationwide, but things seem to be even better here."
UCI's Orange County Annual Survey is the most comprehensive study of the political, social and economic attitudes of Orange County residents. Baldassare, who holds the Roger W. and Janice M. Johnson Endowed Chair in Civic Governance and Public Management in UCI's School of Social Ecology, has conducted it since 1982.