UCI

Residents remain deeply divided over El Toro airport issue, UC Irvine's 1998 Orange County Annual Survey shows

Irvine, Calif. - Orange County residents are no closer to consensus on the El Toro airport issue today than they were a year ago, and many remain dissatisfied with the way county government is handling the issue, according to UC Irvine's 1998 Orange County Annual Survey.

The survey shows that 48 percent of residents oppose the proposal to transform El Toro Marine Corps Air Station into an international airport, while 41 percent favor the airport. These results are identical to the responses residents gave last year. As in last year's survey, North County residents favor an international airport by a slight margin (47 percent vs. 40 percent), while South County residents oppose the airport by a wide margin (71 percent vs. 24 percent).

"The fact that there's been no movement in public opinion in spite of the strong efforts of those for and against the airport to sway residents is very telling," said UCI professor Mark Baldassare, who co-directed the survey with research associate Cheryl Katz.

"Both sides have come up with plans for reuse of the military base that they hoped would have broad appeal, but neither side has been able to convince residents that its plan for the military base reflects the best interests of the county as a whole. Until this happens, we're not likely to see consensus on this issue."

The 17th Orange County Annual Survey of 2,002 adult residents was conducted by telephone from Sept. 1-13, using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers. Interviews of randomly selected adult household members were conducted in English, Spanish and, for the first time, in Vietnamese. Twice as large as previous surveys, the 1998 survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percent.

The 1998 survey includes a new question asking residents to choose between two El Toro base reuse plans now being discussed. The first option, similar to the county government's plan, includes an airport, educational and recreational facilities and open space. The other option, similar to the "Millennium Plan" developed by South County cities, includes residential, commercial, educational and recreational facilities and open space-but no airport.

Again, residents are deeply divided, with 51 percent favoring the non-airport plan and 40 percent favoring the airport. North County residents are evenly split between the two competing plans, while 67 percent of South County residents favor the non-airport plan.

"Neither side has come up with a plan that creates enthusiasm in North County or reduces opposition in South County," said Baldassare, who is a professor of urban and regional planning in UCI's School of Social Ecology and a senior fellow of the Public Policy Institute of California.

Baldassare believes lack of confidence in county government is a significant factor behind the failure to reach consensus on the airport issue.

Only 29 percent of residents approve of the way county government is handling the El Toro base conversion issue, while 43 percent disapprove and 28 percent have no opinion. The disapproval rating remains the same as last year, while the approval rating is up slightly-by six points. Disapproval outweighs approval in North County and South County alike.

"Without faith and confidence in government leaders, it's hard for people to get behind the airport issue," Baldassare said. "The county didn't begin the base reuse planning process by trying to develop a broad-based public consensus, and it's hard to go back now and have a reasoned debate about the pros and cons of an airport because attitudes seem to be pretty much set in stone. It might be different if people felt they had been engaged in the process from the beginning."

The UCI survey shows that another hurdle facing those who favor an airport at El Toro is satisfaction with John Wayne Airport.

When asked how they think the county's air travel needs should be met, 48 percent of residents say they'd like to have John Wayne continue to be the county's only commercial airport. Thirty-two percent would like to develop El Toro as an international airport and continue to use John Wayne as a commercial airport. Only 13 percent want to close John Wayne and develop El Toro as Orange County's only commercial airport. The results were similar last year.

"A lot of people feel John Wayne Airport already is meeting the county's air travel needs and can continue to do so," Baldassare said.