UCI

This seventeenth report of the Orange County Annual Survey continues to monitor political, social and economic trends in this dynamic region. Our special focus this year was on understanding the impacts of increasing urbanization and the changing demographics of Orange County. Here are the key findings from the 1998 survey as they relate to the questions we posed at the beginning of this report:

1. Is Orange County showing signs of losing its suburban character?

• When we compare Orange County with Los Angeles County, we see few similarities between these two regions. Orange County residents express more satisfaction with their housing, work, leisure, finances and happiness, and give higher evaluations of their local schools, parks, police and roads. Los Angeles residents express greater concerns about traffic and pollution in their region and are less likely to feel very safe walking in their neighborhoods at night. Orange County residents also have more positive views about the job opportunities available in their region.
• Looking at responses to the Orange County Annual Survey over time, most signs indicate that Orange County is maintaining its suburban character. Satisfaction with housing, work, finances and happiness-and ratings of police, parks, roads and schools-are either unchanged or improved in the 1990s. Comparing the 1982 survey with the 1998 survey, there have been declines in satisfaction with roads and housing, but not for ratings of police, parks, schools, work, leisure, finances or happiness.
• On the whole, the older North County region does not show signs of becoming like Los Angeles County. Local freeways, streets and roads had similar ratings in North County and Los Angeles County. Otherwise, quality-of-life scores and local government ratings were higher in North County than in Los Angeles County. Still, North County rates its local services lower than South County.
• On a few important dimensions, however, Orange County appears to be just as urban as Los Angeles County. Population growth and development are viewed as equally serious problems in the two regions. Few in either county are highly satisfied with the availability of housing they can afford or the overall cost of living in their regions.

• Social diversity is bringing about a wide range of attitudes on the state of the economy. Latinos are very bullish, while Asians are more cautiously optimistic. Latinos are more likely than non-Hispanic whites and Asians to think that they will be better off next year and that the U.S. economy will be in good times next year. Asians are more concerned than others about the negative impacts the Asian financial crisis could have on the U.S. economy next year. Latinos and Asians are less positive than non-Hispanic whites about the long-term trends in the U.S. economy.
• Asians and Latinos trail non-Hispanic whites in all measures of charitable behavior-a worrisome trend given that they are the fastest-growing population groups in Orange County. As the Asian and Latino populations rise, this trend is presenting a new challenge for increasing charitable involvement. Non-Hispanic whites are more likely than Latinos and Asians to volunteer and donate large sums of money to charity. Importantly, Latinos and Asians also are less likely than non-Hispanic whites to be asked to give by charitable institutions.
• Asians and Latinos may be increasing their political involvement, but they still are far behind the political activity of non-Hispanic whites. Latinos, especially, express little or no interest in politics, rarely attend to political news and infrequently or never vote. Non-Hispanic whites are much more likely than Latinos or Asians to say they are registered to vote. In their political orientation, however, Asians and Latinos tend to mirror the county. Again, the low rates of civic and political participation among Asians and Latinos are troubling trends, given the changing demographics in Orange County.

• The county continues to be divided about the El Toro reuse plans. Four in 10 approve of an airport, while half disapprove and one in 10 is undecided. North County residents narrowly favor an airport, while South County residents are strongly opposed. These results have been consistent over time.
• If residents are asked to choose between two competing El Toro reuse proposals, there is no overwhelming favorite. Four in 10 favor the county government's plan which includes an airport, while half favor the "Millennium Plan" which does not include an airport, and one in 10 is undecided. Similar to last year, half of the residents prefer to have John Wayne alone meeting Orange County's future air travel needs, while one in three wants both airports open and one in eight wants to close John Wayne.

• The public gives favorable grades to their local schools. Six in 10 now rate the local public schools as excellent or good. Positive scores are up seven points since last year and 15 points in only two years. Still, residents believe there is room for improvement. Eight in 10 want to end social promotions, and six in 10 favor providing parents with tax-supported school vouchers for private school tuition. Support for ending social promotions cuts across all groups, while school vouchers remain a politically divisive issue.
• While the public favors school reforms, they are reluctant to pay more taxes for improvements. Only a narrow majority favors lowering the barrier to pass school construction bonds from a two-thirds vote to a simple majority. Fewer than half say they would vote for a tax increase for their local schools. Support for a tax increase falls well short of the required two-thirds majority in all groups.

• Residents have very positive assessments of the current state of the county, but they are worried about next year. Three in four residents rate the county economy today as excellent or good. However, six in 10 worry that the Asian financial crisis will hurt the Orange County economy in the next year or so. Consumer confidence remains very high. But it is down from last year, as a result of less bullish views about the U.S. economy next year. Nonetheless, ratings of the quality of life are overwhelmingly positive, and optimists outnumber pessimists when it comes to predictions about Orange County's future.
• The housing market continues to heat up. Strong majorities of homeowners and renters believe that buying an Orange County home is an excellent or good investment. Optimism about housing has risen sharply since the recession ended. Mortgages have inched higher, while rents show a steep increase.
• For the first time in Orange County's post-bankruptcy era, attitudes about county government show signs of improvement. Four in 10 believe the county government does an excellent or good job in solving county problems; six in 10 say county government leaders pay a lot or some attention to what the people think; and only one in three says county government wastes a lot of taxpayers' money. The measures of job performance, responsiveness and efficiency all have increased since last year. Still, Orange County residents give better grades to their city governments than to the county government.
• Crime is once again rated the county's most serious public policy problem. No other issue comes close, despite a declining crime rate. Fear seems to be a major factor driving this trend, with many residents continuing to worry about becoming a crime victim. Fewer than half of Orange County residents say they feel very safe walking alone in their neighborhoods at night.
• Transportation attitudes have stopped improving. About a quarter of residents are satisfied with the current freeways, unchanged from last year. A quarter of workers say they experience major traffic problems during their commute, which is up slightly from recent years. The sharp geographic differences represent a change from the past, with North County now expressing more frustration over traffic conditions than South County. Measure M projects continue to be very popular, but satisfaction with the way these funds are spent is holding steady, rather than increasing.
• The climate for charitable giving is not improving, even though consumer confidence is very high. About half claimed a deduction for charitable donations on their 1997 taxes, unchanged from last year. Two in three were asked to give to a charity, also unchanged since the 1997 survey. The median donation to all charities in the past year was $203-down from $226 a year ago and lower than the historical average. About half say they did some volunteer work in the past year, also unchanged from last year.
• Most Orange County residents today describe themselves as middle-of-the-road to somewhat conservative. The trend in the 1990s has been a movement away from the right and toward the middle. Many Orange County residents are disengaged from politics and elections. One in three says they have little or no interest in politics. One in four follows what's going on in government and public affairs only now and then or hardly at all. An encouraging trend is increased interest in politics and attention to political news compared with last year. Still, one in three admits to voting sporadically or never.