UCI

Irvine, Calif. – What appears to be the best of times for Orange County residents may turn out to be among the worst of times for the county’s elected officials.

UC Irvine’s 1997 Orange County Annual Survey shows that, while assessments of the local economy are the most positive they’ve been since 1992 and ratings of the county’s quality of life have reached their highest point in 10 years, residents continue to lack confidence in county government.

"It’s surprising that confidence in elected officials and government hasn’t rebounded along with the economy," said UCI professor Mark Baldassare, who conducted the survey along with research associate Cheryl Katz. "That’s usually what happens in other parts of the nation, but county government isn’t getting credit for the good times Orange County residents are seeing today."
"It may be that county officials have found themselves leaving one crisis—the bankruptcy—and entering into another with the controversy over the conversion of the El Toro Marine base," Katz added.

Survey results released in October show that less than one quarter of residents approve of the way county government is handling the base conversion issue. When asked to rate county government’s overall performance, only one in four residents says it does an excellent or good job of solving problems.

The lack of faith in county government isn’t the only survey finding that provides cause for concern.

"Another important trend in this year’s survey is the reemergence of traffic and growth as significant problems in Orange County," noted Baldassare, who is professor and chair of urban and regional planning in UCI’s School of Social Ecology.

Traffic and growth combined now exceed crime as the county’s leading public policy problem, according to the random-sample survey.

"What concerns me most about this trend is that traffic problems seem to be on the rise at a time when county government has made a long-term commitment to redirecting transportation improvement funds to pay the county’s bankruptcy debts," Baldassare said.

Katz noted that, in addition to residents’ optimism about the economy and quality of life, bright spots in the survey include a significant improvement in ratings of the county’s public schools and a surge of confidence in the county’s housing market.

The 1997 Orange County Annual Survey, conducted by telephone Sept. 4-14, questioned 1,002 adult residents. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percent. Following is a summary of the survey’s key findings.

County Attitudes

"Residents expressed a remarkable amount of optimism about the economy, the quality of life and the future," Baldassare said. "Optimists outnumber pessimists for the third year in a row, and the gap between them is the biggest it’s ever been."

Sixty-three percent of residents believe the Orange County economy is in excellent or good shape, an increase of 44 points in just two years. A third say it is in fair condition, and only 4 percent say it is doing poorly.

Eighty-eight percent give high ratings to the county’s quality of life. This is up six points from last year and is the best assessment of quality of life in 10 years. Regionally, 94 percent of South County residents say things are going well, compared to 77 percent in Central County.

As for the future, 36 percent expect Orange County’s quality of life to improve, while 26 percent say the county will become a worse place to live. Thirty-eight percent expect little change.

County Government

Residents continue to lack confidence in county government, with only 26 percent saying it does an excellent or good job of solving county problems, 50 percent saying it does a fair job and 20 percent saying it does a poor job.

Fifty-six percent say county government leaders pay attention to what people think when adopting policies, but, of these residents, only 6 percent say their elected officials pay "a lot" of attention. Forty-two percent say county leaders pay little or no attention to residents.

County leaders are seen as wasteful as well as inattentive by many residents. Forty percent think county government wastes a lot of tax money, and another 44 percent say it wastes some. Only 11 percent say the county wastes little or no money.

These measures of confidence in county government are unchanged from a year ago.

Public Schools

Fifty percent of residents say local schools are doing an excellent or good job, up from 42 percent last year and 28 percent in 1991. This is the most positive rating public schools have received since this question was first asked in 1982.

"Still, even among people with children in public schools, there isn’t strong support for increasing taxes or reducing restrictions on the public schools’ ability to raise funds," Baldassare noted.
Forty-four percent of all residents say they would vote for a tax increase for their local schools, while 50 percent are opposed. Thirty-seven percent are in favor of changing Proposition 13’s two-thirds "super-majority" vote requirement for tax increases and allowing a simple majority to pass local school taxes, while 56 percent are opposed.

"People think the schools are improving, but they’re not willing to pay more to see local schools do better," Baldassare said. "This may reflect the fact that more help has been coming from Sacramento, and residents are relying on the state to continue providing large surpluses. But schools may not be able to sustain the improvements if local residents aren’t willing to help."

Most Important Problems

For the fifth consecutive year, crime is the leading concern of residents, but worries about traffic and growth are on the rise. Crime is rated the most pressing problem by 24 percent of residents, followed by traffic (18 percent), schools (15 percent), growth (14 percent) and immigration (13 percent). Lesser concerns are jobs and the economy (6 percent), housing (5 percent) and the county’s bankruptcy and financial crisis (5 percent).

Mentions of traffic and growth combined jumped 10 points in the past year, while the number naming crime as the top problem dropped 3 points. Together, traffic and growth are named as the county’s top problems by one in three residents. Concern about these issues, which dominated the list of county problems between 1985 and 1991, is at the highest level in five years.
Baldassare said the county’s growth may explain why concern about crime persists even though crime rates have been falling. "People are nervous and fearful about the continuing urbanization of the county," he said.

When asked what social issues concern them most, residents once again named drug abuse as the top concern (34 percent), followed by health care (23 percent), race relations and child care (13 percent each), the homeless (11 percent), AIDS (4 percent) and other issues (2 percent).

Concern about drug abuse is down 4 points since last year, while those naming health care increased by 5 points. Mentions of health care as the leading social problem are higher in South County than elsewhere (30 percent to 20 percent).

Housing Market

Optimism about Orange County housing continues its steady climb, with 70 percent of homeowners and 56 percent of renters calling home ownership an excellent or good investment.

Among homeowners, the number who see a home in Orange County as a favorable investment is up 10 points since last year and 20 points in two years. The number of renters who share this view has risen 11 points in the past year and 15 points in two years.

"This is the highest level of confidence in the housing market we’ve seen since we began asking this question in 1993," Katz said.

She said home ownership might be more attractive to renters in the next year because there has been a slight rise in rents and a slight dip in mortgage payments. The median monthly rent is up from $713 in 1996 to $735, while the median monthly mortgage payment has dropped from $960 last year to $948. This is the first year since 1994 that rental payments have increased.

South County remains the most expensive region, with 31 percent of homeowners paying more than $1,500 a month, compared to 17 percent of homeowners elsewhere. Thirty-one percent of South County renters pay more than $1,000 a month, compared to 15 percent of renters in other areas.

Transportation

With a growing number of residents saying that traffic is the biggest problem facing the county, more residents are calling for construction of new freeways (26 percent vs. 22 percent last year). This is a notable shift, because the number wanting new freeways had been declining steadily each year from a high point of 51 percent in 1989.
Forty-eight percent of residents want lanes added, and 26 percent are satisfied with the current system.

Traffic problems seem to be shifting geographically.

"Residents in the South County are now among the most satisfied with their roads as a result of recent traffic improvements," Katz said.

"Residents in the north and west parts of the county are more likely to say traffic is a big problem and to call for added freeway lanes."
Measure M projects continue to gain in popularity.

Three in four residents say they’re satisfied with the way Measure M funds are being spent, with 20 percent very satisfied and 56 percent somewhat satisfied. Satisfaction is up 3 points since 1996, 16 points since 1995 and 28 points since 1992. Sixteen percent are not satisfied and 8 percent have no opinion.