UCI

Executive Summary

This sixteenth report of the Orange County Annual Survey, UCI, continues to monitor social, economic and political trends. This year we also focus on the proposed airport, local public schools, charitable attitudes and political orientation. The 1997 survey was conducted from Sept. 4-Sept. 14, and included random telephone interviews with 1,002 Orange County adult residents in English and Spanish. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3% at the 95% confidence level. Here are the highlights of this year's findings.

COUNTY ATTITUDES

This year assessments of Orange County's economy are the most positive they have been since 1992. Sixty-three percent say the local economy is in excellent or good shape, 32 percent say fair and only 4 percent say poor. Positive ratings have increased 44 points since 1995. Ratings of the county's quality of life are also up, with 88 percent now saying things are going very or somewhat well and only 12 percent thinking they are going badly. Positive ratings of the quality of life in Orange County are up six points since last year. Expectations for the future are more positive than negative, with 36 percent saying the county will be a better place to live and 26 percent saying it will be a worse place. This is the third consecutive year that optimists outnumber pessimists.

COUNTY GOVERNMENT

Residents continue to lack confidence in county government, with only 26 percent saying it does an excellent or good job of solving county problems, 50 percent saying it does a fair job and 20 percent saying it does a poor job. Fifty-six percent perceive county leaders as paying a lot (6%) or some (50%) attention to what the people think when they decide on county policies, while 42 percent think they pay very little (35%) or no (7%) attention. Four in 10 think that county government wastes a lot of the money it receives in taxes, and another 44 percent say it wastes some. Only 11 percent say it wastes little or no tax money. All of the county government perceptions are similar to last year.

EL TORO AIRPORT

The county remains divided on whether to build a commercial airport at the closing El Toro Marine Corps Air Station. Forty-one percent favor the proposal to transform the base into a commercial airport, while 48 percent are opposed. The new airport is favored slightly in North County (46% to 41%), while supporters are outnumbered by opponents in South County(25% to 68%). When residents are asked what their preferred use for the closing base is, a commercial airport (24%) ties with an education center (23%). Less-preferred uses include a public park (15%), a sports and entertainment complex (12%), residential and commercial development (11%), and a regional transit center (5%). In North County, an airport is slightly favored over an education center (28% to 23%), while the reverse is true in South County (14% to 24%). Most residents (49%) prefer to have John Wayne alone meeting Orange County future air travel needs, while 34 percent want both airports open and 11 percent would like to close John Wayne and have only the El Toro Airport. Having both airports open is more strongly favored in North County (38%) than in South County (22%).

PUBLIC SCHOOLS

Ratings of the county's public schools are improving markedly, with 50 percent now giving the schools excellent or good ratings -- up 8 points since last year and the most positive it has been since this question was first asked in 1982. Still, residents remain reluctant to raise taxes to support the public schools -- only 44 percent say they would vote for a tax increase for their local schools, while 50 percent are opposed. Residents also are opposed to changing the super-majority vote requirement for tax increases stipulated by Proposition 13 -- only 37 percent favor changing the requirement to a simple majority to pass school tax hikes, and only 43 percent favor changing it for passing school bonds. Even among parents with children in public schools, all the tax increase proposals fall short of the required majority.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

The Consumer Confidence Index now stands at 110, an increase of nine points from a year ago and 20 points since 1995. The local index is at the highest point in its 11-year history, and is also ahead of the U.S. index. Four of the five questions in our Consumer Confidence Index show increases from 1996: 52 percent say they are financially better off now than they were a year ago; 73 percent expect good times for the U.S. economy next year; 56 percent believe the U.S. will have continued good economic times during the next five years; and 73 percent think this is a good time for major purchases. High levels of optimism about personal finances, however, are only evident in households with annual incomes of $80,000 or more. The Consumer Confidence Index for Latinos now stands at 102, a highly positive score.

MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS

Crime is rated the county's most pressing public policy problem by 24 percent of residents. Traffic is next on the list (18%), followed by schools (15%), growth (14%) and immigration (13%). Jobs and the economy (6%), housing (5%) and the county government's bankruptcy and financial crisis (5%) each receive relatively few mentions. Compared to a year ago, mention of traffic and growth jumped 10 points. In the realm of social issues, drug abuse continues to be seen as the county’s top concern (34%), followed by health care (23%), race relations and child care (13% each), the homeless (11%) and AIDS (4%). The mention of health care increased by five points since last year.

HOUSING MARKET

Seventy percent of homeowners and 56 percent of renters believe that buying a home in Orange County is an excellent or good investment. The number of homeowners who think a home in Orange County is a favorable investment is up 10 points since last year and 20 points in two years. Among renters, the number who believe that buying an Orange County home is an excellent or good investment has risen 11 points since last year, and 15 points in two years. The median monthly mortgage payment is $948 this year, and the median rent is $735. Sixty-three percent of homeowners and 48 percent of renters pay more than $750 a month for housing. South County remains the most expensive region, with 31 percent of South County homeowners paying mortgages of more than $1,500 a month, compared to 17 percent of homeowners elsewhere. Thirty-one percent of South County renters pay more than $1,000 a month, compared with 15 percent of renters elsewhere.

TRANSPORTATION

Twenty-six percent of residents say the current freeway system is satisfactory, 48 percent want lanes added and 26 percent want new freeways built. The number wanting to build new freeways is up four points compared to a year ago. Residents in South County (35%) and Central County (30%) regions are now more satisfied than others. Nineteen percent of workers say they experience major traffic problems during their commute, which is similar to most of this decade. Employees living in North County (26%) and West County (20%) are more likely than others to say they have big problems during their commute. Measure M projects continue to gain in popularity. Three in four residents now say they are satisfied with the way Measure M sales tax funds are being spent, 16 percent are not satisfied and 8 percent are unsure. Satisfaction with Measure M spending is up three points since 1996, 16 points since 1995 and 28 points since 1992.

CHARITABLE ATTITUDES

Nearly two in three say that keeping taxes down is a major reason they would make a donation, putting Orange County well ahead of the number nationwide who say that this is a major reason to give to charity. Other top motivations for giving money or volunteering time are residents' belief that those who have more should help those who have less (59%), and their desire to give back to society some of the benefits it gave to them (53%). Fewer are highly moved by an employer's encouragement (38%), helping individuals meet their material needs (29%), or being asked to contribute to charity by a friend (29%).

County residents are more likely than the nation to have the opportunity to give through payroll deductions (37% to 26%), and are more likely to say they do so (22% to 12%). Orange County residents also are more likely than the nation to itemize their tax returns (50% to 38%), and to claim charitable donations (41% to 27%). County residents are more likely than the nation to have no will (68% to 58%), and few have left money to charity in their will (10% to 5%). One in three residents say they were not asked to give to a charitable organization in the past year, while 67 percent say they have been solicited. The county's most affluent households are highly likely to be solicited, but most Latino households have not been asked to give. Three in 10 county residents, and 47 percent of households earning $50,000 or more, say they gave $500 or more to charities in the past year. The median donation was $226. These numbers are similar to last year and an increase from two years ago. Volunteering also was unchanged, with 48 percent saying they did some volunteer work in the past year. The number of Orange County residents who did some volunteering is similar to the rate nationwide.

POLITICAL CLIMATE

Orange County residents tend to describe themselves as middle-of-the-road to somewhat conservative in their political orientation (60%). The majority of Republicans (64%), Democrats (53%), other voters (68%), those who are not registered to vote (56%) and Latinos (55%) describe themselves in this manner. Large numbers of Orange County residents are politically disengaged, and more so than the nation. Four in 10 have little or no interest in politics, three in 10 say they follow political news only occasionally or hardly at all, and three in 10 say they do not vote often. Six in 10 Latinos (62%) say they are infrequent voters, including 42 percent who say they never vote.

Compared to the nation, Orange County tends to be more conservative on fiscal and economic issues and more liberal on social issues. Most think the government is wasteful and inefficient (54%) and perceive elected officials as not caring what people like them think (58%). They are divided on whether government regulation of business does more harm than good (44%), but believe that stricter environmental laws are worth the cost (63%). Fifty-five percent say the government should reduce taxes, even if it means spending less on social programs, and 58 percent feel that federal income taxes are too high. Nearly half think the poor have it easy because they can get government benefits (48%), while more than half believe the government cannot afford to do more to help the poor (54%). Forty-one percent say that businesses make too much profit. About one in three view immigrants as a burden on the country. Fifty-six percent agree that homosexuality as a way of life should be accepted by society, and the same number say public school libraries should be allowed to carry any books they want.