UCI

The Orange County Consumer Confidence Index now stands at 110. This indicates even brighter consumer sentiments than in the booming mid-1980s. The local index is also ahead of the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index for the second straight year. Four questions in our Consumer Confidence Index show upward trends from 1996:

73 percent expect good times for the U.S. economy next year, while 16 percent predict bad times. Optimism has risen 12 points since 1996. This is the most positive reading in the 11 years that we have asked this survey question;

56 percent believe the United States will have continued good economic times during the next five years, while 31 percent expect bad times. This is up six points from last year, and is the most positive long-term U.S. outlook we have on record;

73 percent think now is a good time for major purchases, while 11 percent call it a bad time. The view that this is a good time to spend money is up eight points since last year;

52 percent say they are financially better off now than a year ago, while only 15 percent are worse off. The number with positive views is up six points from 1996.

One result is unchanged from last year: 51 percent expect to be financially better off next year than they are now, while 4 percent think they will be worse off.
Graph: Trends in Consumer Confidence: Household Finances

All together, the five-question Consumer Confidence Index in Orange County is up nine points from a year ago and 20 points since 1995. Nationwide, the Consumer Confidence Index stands at 107, according to the University of Michigan. The local index is now above the 109 reading taken in 1986, during Orange County's golden era of rapid job growth, and is 37 points above the lowest point in 1993. The Consumer Confidence Index is calculated from a formula provided by the University of Michigan, which computes scores for each question (better - worse + 100), then adjusts by the 1966 base period. The national index score was 100 in 1966.
Graph: Trends in Consumer Confidence: U.S. Economy

The high levels of optimism about personal finances that were evident in countywide ratings a decade ago are now found only in the upper-income groups. Of those with household incomes of $80,000 or more, two in three say they are better off now than they were last year, and six in 10 look forward to continued personal financial gains in the coming year. The most affluent residents are also far more positive about the national economy, perhaps reflecting confidence in the stock market. The Consumer Confidence Index for residents with annual household incomes of $80,000 or more is a stunning 122 points, compared to 107, the same as the national figure, for those earning less.
Graph: Five-Question Consumer Confidence Index

This year, for the first time we focus on the confidence ratings of Latinos, a quarter of the county population and one of the fastest-growing consumer groups in Orange County. More than half of the county's Latinos report that they are financially better off now than last year and expect to be better off again next year. Six in 10 Latinos say this is a good time to make big purchases. Graph: Consumer Confidence: Latinos in Orange County

Two in three expect the U.S. economy to be in good shape next year. Latinos are divided on the long-term outlook for the U.S. economy, with four in 10 expecting good times and the same number anticipating bad times. Latinos are as positive about their personal finances as are non-Hispanic whites, but Latinos are less bullish on the U.S. economy. The Consumer Confidence Index for Latinos now stands at 102, a highly positive score.