UCI

Here are some of the positive trends in the 1997 Orange County Annual Survey:

The public's assessment of the Orange County economy has reached new highs for the 1990s, with two in three residents saying the local economy is in excellent or good shape. Ratings of the county's quality of life are also up, with 9 in 10 now saying things are going well. As for the future, optimists outnumber pessimists by a widening margin. The gloom and doom seen during the recession of the early 1990s and the county bankruptcy are nowhere in sight.

Residents also are feeling very good about the national economy, and perceptions of their personal finances are slowly, but steadily, improving. The Consumer Confidence Index reached a sizzling 110 this year, which is the highest point in its 11-year history and also is ahead of the U.S. index. Three in four expect a good year for the nation's economy in 1998, and the same number say this is a good time to make major purchases. All of this is good news for the many county businesses that rely on consumer spending.

As a very important sign for the future of the county's economy, Latinos have highly positive scores on the Consumer Confidence Index. More than half say they are financially better off this year than last year, and the same number expect to be better off next year than they are today. Latinos are a quarter of the population, and one of the fastest-growing groups.

Homeowners (70%) and renters (56%) alike show confidence in the county's housing market. These numbers are up sharply from just two years ago. Residents once again consider Orange County a very attractive place to live.

Opinions of the county's public schools are improving markedly, with half now giving the schools excellent or good ratings. Importantly, parents with children in the local public schools give even more positive ratings.

The Measure M transportation projects continue to be an example for county residents that government funding can be put to work in an effective and efficient manner. The use of these local sales tax funds gets good reviews from residents who are generally mistrustful of government. Three in four residents now say they are satisfied with the way Measure M sales tax funds are being spent. Satisfaction with Measure M spending is up 28 points since 1992.

However, there are a number of warning signals to heed as we examine the following trends in this year's survey:

Residents continue to show a lack of faith in county government. Only one in four says it does an excellent or good job in solving problems. Four in 10 say the county's officials pay little or no attention to what the people think when they are setting policies. Four in 10 believe county government wastes a lot of the money it collects from taxpayers. Distrust cuts across all groups. Even as the largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history is fading from memory, there is no indication that trust in county government is improving.

The county remains deeply divided on whether to build a commercial airport at the closing El Toro Marine Corps Air Station. Two elections and years of discussion have not brought the public closer to consensus on this important issue. Four in 10 favor the airport proposal, but only one in four says that a commercial airport is their most preferred use for the decommissioned Marine base. Many think the John Wayne Airport alone can handle the county's air travel needs, and few want that airport closed in favor of a new airport at El Toro. The county is deeply divided along north/south lines. More important, however, may be the fact that only one in four approves of the way county government has handled the issue.

The local public schools cannot expect extra tax dollars from county residents, who remain reluctant to raise taxes to support the schools. Fewer than half say they would back a tax increase for their local schools, at a time when such increases need a two-thirds majority to pass. Moreover, most residents are unwilling to end the super-majority vote requirement to pass school bonds or tax increases. Support falls short in all groups, including parents with public school children. Thus, local schools will need to rely on funding from the state.

Public concerns about traffic and growth are on the rise again. Traffic has jumped to the number-two spot on the list of the county's top problems, and has risen 10 points in just two years. Traffic and growth, which are highly intertwined as issues, now outnumber mentions of crime as the top worry among Orange County residents. For the first time in years, the number of people who want new freeways has risen. Complaints about traffic conditions in South County have diminished, as new toll roads, carpool lanes and other improvements have taken effect, and dissatisfaction seems to have headed north. This resurgence in traffic problems occurs at a time when the county government has a long-term commitment to redirect transportation funds to pay for the county's bankruptcy debts.

The survey this year had a special focus on charitable attitudes. The results included comparisons with national trends and an analysis of key demographic subgroups. They provide new and important knowledge that will enlighten discussions about charitable giving. Among the findings that offer some guidance to the county's nonprofit organizations:

Orange County residents are strongly motivated to give time and money to charity if they see this as a way to keep taxes down. Two in three say this is a major reason for giving. Larger donors and volunteers are more motivated by giving back to society. These messages could be effective in campaigns to promote donations of time and money in Orange County.

Nearly four in 10 have the opportunity to give through payroll deductions at work, while a little more than half who have this option use it. Efforts should be made to increase the number of workplaces that offer the option of giving to charity through payroll deductions.

Residents have a high rate of claiming deductions on their federal tax returns compared to the rest of the nation, and four in 10 claim charitable donations. Still, more residents should be made aware of making donations and using them as a tax deduction, particularly given the major importance they place on keeping taxes down.

Relatively few Orange County residents have made wills, and only one in 10 has made a bequest to charity in their will. Importantly, the more affluent residents are no more likely than others to say they have made charitable bequests. Efforts that encourage and aid county residents in making wills could lead to more bequests and higher giving overall.

Two in three residents say they have been asked to give to a charitable organization in the past year. Affluent residents and non-Hispanic whites are the most likely to be asked. Organizations should reach out to the county's younger and less-affluent people, who may make smaller, but still significant, contributions. Also, greater efforts should be made to include Latinos, one of the fastest-growing groups in the county.

Finally, the survey this year looked at the political attitudes of county residents. The following findings will assist us in understanding trends in next year's election and the future:

County residents are somewhat to the right of center in their politics. Most describe themselves as middle-of-the-road to somewhat conservative (60%). So do most Republicans (64%), Democrats (53%), other voters (68%) and those who are not registered to vote (56%).

Many residents are politically disengaged, and more so than the nation. Four in 10 have little or no interest in politics, three in 10 say they follow political news only now and then or hardly at all, and three in 10 say they vote only part of the time, seldom or never.

Orange County residents tend to be conservative on fiscal and economic issues, liberal on social and environmental issues, and distrustful of government. Most think the government is wasteful and that elected officials don't care what people like them think. They are more likely than the rest of the nation to think that the government should reduce taxes even if it means spending less on social programs (55% to 31%) and to say that the government today can't do too much more to help the needy (54% to 44%) . They are less likely to say that businesses make too much profit (41% to 51%). Yet they are also more likely than the rest of the nation to say that homosexuality should be accepted (56% to 44%) and less likely to see immigrants as a burden (36% to 54%). Two in three are in favor of stricter environmental regulations.

In a glimpse into the county's political future, the views of Latinos are in many ways similar to the non-Hispanic whites who dominate local politics today. Latinos are just as likely to say they are middle-of-the-road to somewhat conservative (55%). Their views are similar to non-Hispanic whites on topics such as government regulations, the environment, the attentiveness of elected officials, federal income taxes, and homosexuality. However, Latinos are more likely to think that businesses make too much profit. They also are less likely to think that the government is inefficient, that immigrants are a burden on society, that the government can't afford to help the needy and that public school libraries should carry any books they want. The current levels of political involvement prevent these and other views from being heard. Six in 10 Latinos say they are infrequent voters, and 42 percent say they never vote.