UCI

Political Climate

We look at Orange County's political profile to see if there are shifts over time. We also examine election preferences and participation rates.
Orange County residents are more likely to describe themselves as middle-of-the road in their political ideology today than in 1990 (33% to 26%). This is a result of a decline in the numbers saying they are very liberal (9% to 6%) or very conservative (13% to 9%). Today, two in three describe their politics as moderate-to-somewhat-conservative. Graph

As for party differences in political ideology, most Republicans (73%) say they are moderate-to-somewhat-conservative, while Democrats describe themselves as somewhat liberal to middle-of-the-road (68%). Still, half of the Democrats (52%) can also be categorized as middle-of-the-road to somewhat conservative. Since 1990, Democrats (31% to 36%) and Republicans (19% to 28%) are both more likely to say their views are middle-of-the-road. Graph

Next, we examine participation in elections. In the 1996 survey, 19 percent of adult residents say they have not voted in the past four years, 10 percent voted once, 27 percent voted two or three times and 40 percent voted four or more times. Four percent were unsure. About half of the Hispanic (49%) and one in three Asian (33%) adult residents say they never voted, compared with 9 percent of non-Hispanic whites. These results are confirmed by the fact that many Hispanics (45%) and Asians (23%) say they are not registered to vote. As for frequent voting, most non-Hispanic whites say they voted four or more times (52%), compared to one in six Hispanics (15%) and Asians (16%). As a result, the profile of frequent voters is overwhelmingly non-Hispanic white (86%), with few Hispanics (7%) or Asians (4%).

While their voting patterns differ, the political profiles of the ethnic and racial groups are fairly similar. Most Hispanics (57%), Asians (62%) and non-Hispanic whites (68%) say they are middle-of-the-road to somewhat conservative. Hispanics are a little more likely to describe themselves as somewhat-to-very conservative (45%) than are non-Hispanic whites (40%) or Asians (37%).

Finally, we consider election preferences. When we conducted the survey, Bill Clinton was in a statistical tie with Bob Dole in the presidential race among all voters (43% to 41%) and likely voters (41% to 44%). Ten percent were undecided. Dole ultimately edged out Clinton in Orange County (52% to 38%), with 8 percent going for Ross Perot. Proposition 209, the California Civil Rights Initiative on the state ballot, had strong early support in Orange County among all voters (61% to 25%) and likely voters (64% to 23%), and garnered 64 percent on election day. The survey also found that Measure A on the Orange County ballot, which set term limits for the Board of Supervisors, was an overwhelming favorite among all voters (72% to 19%) and likely voters (74% to 18%) . That measure passed with 79 percent in November.