UCI

Tracking Questions: Political Climate

We looked at Orange County's political profile to see if there have been any shifts in the 1990s. We found no change in self-described party registration. Orange County adults are much more likely to say they are Republicans than Democrats in 1995 (48% to 27%) and in 1990 (48% to 29%). About one in four say they are independents, other parties or are not registered.

Orange County residents are as likely to describe themselves as politically moderate-to-somewhat-conservative in 1995 (58%) as in 1990 (59%). As for party differences, 47 percent of Democrats and 66 percent of Republicans say they are moderate-to-some what-conservative in their political leanings. These trends in party differences in political philosophy are unchanged in the 1990s.

We also examine participation in elections. In the 1995 survey, 21 percent of adult residents say they have never voted in the past four years, 29 percent voted one to three times and 50 percent voted four or more times. Ab out half of the Hispanic (50%) and Asian (47%) adult residents say they never voted, compared with 13 percent of nonhispanic whites. Most nonhispanic whites say they voted four or more times (59%), compared to about one in four Hispanics (21%) and Asians (25%). As a result, the profile of frequent voters is overwhelmingly nonhispanic white (88%). The low voting rates by Asians and Hispanics is one reason why local politics are unchanged in the 1990s, even though the county has had growth in its racial and ethnic minorities.

We also looked at early preferences for the 1996 presidential election. Before he dropped out of the race, Gov. Pete Wilson trailed Sen. Bob Dole by a 20-point margin (35 to 15%). The other candidates each got less than 10 percent. Wilson followed Dole by a wide margin among G.O.P. conservatives (37% to 14%), and fared a little better among the party's moderates and liberals (28% to 17%).

President Bill Clinton tied Wilson in a presidential matchup (41% to 41%). One in five Republicans and half of the independents said they would vote for Clinton, while one in 10 Democrats would vote for Wilson. Dole won a matchup with Clinton by a larger margin (50% to 35%). Dole was solidly supported by Republicans, attracted one in five Democrats and was favored by one in three independents.

The anti-affirmative action initiative proposed for the statewide ballot in 1996 had considerable early support among Orange County voters (64% to 31%). Republicans were overwhelmingly in favor (71% to 25%), a majority of Democrats supported it (58% to 36%) and independents were evenly divided on ending affirmative action policies (48% to 47%).