UCI

Conclusions

This has been the most challenging year in Orange County's recent history. The loss of $1.7 billion in the county investment pool, the filing of the nation's largest municipal bankruptcy, the resignation of county officials, the service cutbacks and funding uncertainties faced by local governments, and voter rejection of a recovery sales tax are just some of the tough issues now facing Orange County.

One question the 1995 Orange County Annual Survey seeks to answer is: just how did we fare? Here are some of the responses we found that help us to answer this key issue:

• Residents declared the county's financial crisis to be the top county issue in need of attention. Its seriousness is also seen in the seven in 10 who rate the bankruptcy as a "big problem." One in four say they felt the aftershocks of this man-made financial disaster or had great fears of its future impacts.
• Residents' perceptions of the county economy fell back a notch, wiping out the gains we experienced last year. Fewer than one in five give the county economy an excellent or good rating today, while three in 10 say it is in poor shape. This means that the local economy's ratings have reverted to recession-era lows.
• Consumer confidence has stalled, after making its greatest leap of the decade last year. The one in four residents who felt the impacts of the bankruptcy, or were very fearful of its future effects, pushed the local consumer confidence levels down below the national average. This consumer trend has taken some of the steam from the local economic recovery that was in progress.
• Optimism about owning a home in Orange County has dimmed. Half of the current homeowners and four in 10 renters say that buying a home in Orange County is an "excellent" or "good" investment. The real and perceived effects of the bankruptcy played a role in the declining ratings of housing investments.
• Confidence in local government took a big hit this year. Only four in 10 rate the current system of cities and counties sharing responsibilities as effective, which is a significant decrease from the past. Public sentiment h as grown in favor of giving city governments more power than they have today.
  
  

If county residents have their way, a Chief Executive Officer will run Orange County government and the Board of Supervisors will be relegated to part-time duties. Orange County government will be contracting out with private companies to provide county services. The officials who run county departments, such as the treasurer, clerk and auditor, will continue to be elected, rather than appointed. There will be term limits for the Board of Supervisors, but no increase in members.

Orange County residents' opinions about the bankruptcy, economy, housing and local government reflect a traumatic year of uncertainty and insecurity. With a recovery plan now in place, local officials should set their sights on ways to restore confidence and move the county into the post-bankruptcy era.

Beyond the immediate concerns of the financial crisis, we seek to answer a second question with the results of the 1995 Orange County Annual Survey: How has the county changed at mid-decade? Here are some of the time-trends that tell us where we are headed as we stand at the half-way mark to 2000:

Income growth has been non-existent so far this decade. This trend is occurring even in the midst of local employment growth, and with the economic recovery well under way. A lack of income growth is troublesome because it leads to anemic consumer confidence, which limits consumer spending on housing and other big-ticket items. It also suggests that the jobs that are replacing those lost during the recession may not provide the standard of living currently expected in Orange County.

Crime continues to be a vexing problem. Even as public attention was distracted by the bankruptcy, residents were as likely this year as last to worry about crime. Nearly half say crime is a big problem in Orange County, and four in 10 residents have fears about being the victim of a serious crime. Crime concerns are evident everywhere, though they are concentrated in the Central County. Fortunately, most county residents have faith that the police can protect them from crime. However, this confidence is not shared when it comes to the court system.

Satisfaction with the transportation system continues to show signs of slow, but steady, improvement. About a quarter of residents are satisfied with freeway conditions, while one in six commuters cite major traffic problems on their way to work. There is also increasing satisfaction with the way Measure M funds are being spent on transportation projects. All of this signals good progress since the start of the decade. Still, the diversion of transportation funds to resolve the county bankruptcy will put pressure on the transportation agency to find ways to continue their record of accomplishment for the rest of the 1990s.

Housing trends are relatively stable so far this decade. Two in three households continue to be homeowners, and six in 10 live in single-family dwellings. Rental costs are unchanged, while monthly housing costs for homeowners have risen. One factor that seems to have buoyed the Orange County housing market, even as investor confidence has slumped and consumer demand has sagged in the Southern California region, are the planned communities and new homes available in the affluent South County.

The number of residents giving high ratings to the county's quality of life has declined since the start of the decade. However, fewer also think the county will be a worse place to live in the future. Residents seem to be betting that the county is moving into a mature stage, that is, where things are going "somewhat well" and little will change in the future.

The Orange County political profile has remained stable amidst the turmoil of a decade in which new worries about crime, the economy, and a fiscal meltdown have challenged the status quo. County politics have maintained their solidly Republican and a moderate-to-somewhat-conservative leanings.

Voting trends indicate that local election results are not representative of the county's growing diversity. Political participation by Hispanics and Asians is low. Thus, voting decisions in local elections are dominated by white and nonhispanic residents. Minorities and immigrants need to increase their representation in elections if they are to have a voice in determining issues affecting them, such as statewide affirmative action and local bankruptcy recovery plans.

County residents show no signs of responding to the increased need for private involvement in the local community. Throughout the decade, residents gave on average less than half a percent of their income to charity. And in 1995, as local services were strained by the county's bankruptcy, donations of time and money fell. Clearly, residents will need to respond with greater civic participation, since local government in a post-bankruptcy era will not have the financial resources to go it alone.