UCI

Political Climate

Orange County's political profile has remained stable so far throughout the decade.

One in four voters describe themselves as "liberal," another quarter are "middle of the road," and 47 percent call themselves "conservative." At the extreme ends, 7 percent say they are "very liberal" and 16 percent are "very conservative." These numbers are unchanged since 1990.

Older residents continue to be more likely than those under 55 to call themselves conservative (54% to 45%). They are also considerably more likely to be Republicans (59% to 44%).

Fewer than half of Orange County Democrats say they are liberal (47%), while a third are middle of the road and 21 percent are conservative. Among Republicans, 67 percent call themselves conservative, but only a quarter are very conservative. One in five Republicans are middle of the road and 12 percent say they are liberal.

There are no income differences in political orientation. However, people earning less than $36,000 are less likely to be registered as Republicans (31%) than are those earning more (54%).

The political climate in Orange County this year was dominated by the November election. The debate over Proposition 187, the illegal immigration statewide initiative on the November ballot, seemed to be the central issue in an election that also involved the important races for Governor and U.S. Senator.

In the August survey, 65 percent of Orange County voters supported Proposition 187, which would severely limit government services for illegal immigrants, while 26 percent were opposed. The initiative was at that time overwhelmingly supported by Republicans(71%) and conservatives (73%), but even a majority of Democrats and 49 percent of liberals supported the measure. Six in 10 supported Proposition 187 across all income groups.

In the November election, 67 percent supported the measure, while 33 percent were opposed.

Clearly, many residents are feeling frustrated about illegal immigrants receiving public services. But as the heated debate took place, it seemed that there may also be general concerns about the recent and dramatic demographic shifts that have taken place in the Southern California region, as a result of both illegal and legal immigration. This year, we took a special look at the county's attitudes toward race and ethnic relations.

Orange County residents are in fact feeling uneasy about the demographic changes that have taken place. Fifty-nine percent perceive that ethnic groups are in conflict in Orange County, and 39 percent expect race and ethnic relations to be getting worse in the future. Fewer than half think ethnic diversity has had a positive impact on the county's quality of life (45%) and local economy(49%), while 73 percent say that having a wide variety of ethnic groups has made it harder for local government to be effective. Fifty-two percent perceive their neighborhoods as undergoing racial and ethnic change and of those who have noticed change, fewer than half (48%) say it has had a good impact.

Thirty-four percent say the schools give too much attention to the experiences of ethnic and racial groups, while 20 percent say there is too little attention to these issues. Most say it is better for ethnic and racial groups to blend into society (57%), while 23 percent would prefer ethnic and racial groups to maintain their distinct cultures.

Residents seem eager to support solutions that will reduce racial and ethnic conflict. About eight in 10 say that programs to increase the dialogue between ethnic groups (79%) and raise public understanding about cultural diversity (78%) are needed, and that efforts to improve race relations are important to the local economy (84%) and the county's quality of life (89%).

The election and the survey results indicate that issues of illegal and legal immigration, and racial and ethnic conflict, are important political and public policy issues in Orange County. An analysis of voting habits finds that the minority population now has a low level of participation in the election process, a trend that could have implications for both race and ethnic relations and a wide range of public policy debates.

For instance, 61 percent of Latino adults say they never vote, while only 17 percent say they have voted four or more times in the past four years. As for Asians, 34 percent say they never vote and 25 percent have voted four or more times. In contrast,only 10 percent of nonhispanic whites say they never vote, while 62 percent say they have voted four or more times in four years.

The differences in political participation are also dramatic when we look at the racial and ethnic profile of likely voters in elections. Eight-eight percent of those who have voted four or more times in the past four years are nonhispanic whites, while only 5 percent are Latinos and 4 percent are Asians.

Clearly, one of the possible reasons that the Orange County political climate has changed very little in recent years, despite the dramatic ethnic and racial shifts, is that many minority residentsare not voting in elections.

Chart 2: Political party profiles, 1994 (12K)