UCI

Conclusions

The past year saw the beginning of what may be the return of optimism in Orange County. After several years of dismal assessments of the economy and declining quality of life ratings, opinions now appear to be turning more positive. Here are the key trends we find in the 1994 Orange County Annual Survey:

Consumer confidence reached its highest point so far this decade. Forty-nine percent now expect good times nationwide next year, up 20 points from last year's survey. Forty percent say they are better off now than they were last year, up 10 points from the 1993 survey.

Residents are feeling better about the local economy this year, with 28 percent saying it is in "excellent" or "good" shape, up 8 points from 1993, while half say it is in "fair" condition. Two years from now, 43 percent expect the local economy to be in better shape than it is today. The number saying the economy is in poor shape and forecasting bad times is down from last year.

The county's quality of life ratings are the best they have been since 1990: 13 percent now say things are going "very well," 58 percent say "somewhat well" and 29 percent say "badly." Only 30 percent of residents expect the county to be a worse placeto live two years from now -- a 6-point improvement from 1993.

Satisfaction with the county's freeways is the highest it has been in the past 10 years. Twenty percent say they are satisfied with the current system, which is up 6 points since last year. The rate of driving alone to work has dropped to 76 percent, down 8 points from 1989. Among workers, 63 percent say traffic congestion is a problem during their commute. The number calling traffic a great problem is down 11 points from 1989.

Fewer than half perceive rapid growth in their communities (44%), and want stricter growth controls (45%). Support for stricter growth controls is at its lowest point since 1982.

The number thinking that environmental problems pose a very serious threat to their health and well-being (35%) has dropped 25 points this decade and 8 points in the past year.

Most homeowners (57%) say buying a home in Orange County is an "excellent" or "good" investment, and 47 percent of renters agree. Housing costs remained stable in the past year, with the median mortgage at $900 and the median rent at $750.

But Orange County is by no means over troublesome times. For instance, crime continues to be a major concern, with three in 10 calling it the county's most important problem. Nearly half say crime is a significant problem today in Orange County.

Crime fears appear to be taking a toll on the Orange County suburban lifestyle. Four in 10 residents often or sometimes stay away from public parks and beaches because they are afraid of crime, and three in 10 avoid the county's shopping malls and stores at least sometimes. A quarter say fear of crime often or sometimes keeps them from going out for entertainment.

County attitudes about crime and public safety today are reflecting state and national concerns, and thus need to be placed in proper perspective. In fact, while 44 percent of local residents are fearful that they will be the victim of a serious crime,this is lower than the rate of fear statewide (53%). Most county residents have confidence that the police can protect them from crime (53%), and express more confidence in law enforcement than do Americans nationwide (45%).

Thus, while many residents are expressing fears about crime, there is some comfort in the fact that Orange County appears to be better off, on average, than the state and the nation.

However, there are dramatic differences in crime attitudes across the county's regions. In general, North and Central County residents are more worried about their safety from crime, while those in the South County express relatively little concern. If these trends persist, fear of crime could become another factor that pushes the more affluent North and Central County residents to new addresses in the South County.

Policy preferences regarding crime are worth noting. County residents overwhelmingly support tougher sentencing for repeat offenders. This support is probably related to the fact that only one in four believe the courts are able to convict and properly sentence criminals. In addition, two in three residents want tougher gun control laws enacted as a way of dealing with crime, with 48 percent "strongly" favoring this policy.

If the county is to build on the optimism that is now emerging, a number of issues will need to be addressed.

First, county residents remain deeply divided over the E1 Toro Marine Air Base conversion. While a slim majority favors having a civilian airport there, as shown both by the Annual Survey and the recent election results, nearly half are opposed. Moreover, those in the South County who would have to live with a nearby civilian airport are strongly against it, while voters supporting the airport tend to live in the northern and central cities. Greater consensus about the future of the E1 Toro Marine Air base is still needed. We must avoid regional differences that could lead Orange County's cities and communities to work against each other on the base conversion and other economic issues.

More efforts are needed to encourage private citizens to participate in efforts to solve community problems, particularly in these times of limited local government resources. In this year's survey, six in 10 residents say volunteering time is important, yet fewer than half have volunteered in the past month and only one in four have volunteered for more than one organization in the past year. Local institutions need to find ways to actively involve individuals in volunteer efforts.

Finally, the survey found a high level of concern about ethnic and racial conflicts, a sign that many residents are nervous about the recent demographic changes taking place in the county. On the positive side, many are eager to see an expansion of efforts that would increase the dialogue and understanding between different ethnic and racial groups. One worrisome trend is that many members of the minority community are not participatingin the political process, meaning that their preferences are far from fully expressed in elections. To reduce the potential for ethnic and racial tension, efforts are needed to improve the dialogue and understanding between groups, and to increase the political participation of ethnic and racial minorities in Orange County.