UCI

Political Climate

Despite significant changes in attitudes toward the local economy, personal finances and the county's most important problems, local political profiles are unchanged in the 1990s.

Twenty-eight percent of voters now call themselves "liberal," the same as in 1990, while 28 percent say they are "middle-of-the-road" and 44 percent are "conservative." In 1990, 28 percent were liberals, 25 percent said they were moderate and 46 percent were self-described conservatives.

There is also no change at the extreme ends of the political spectrum -- 7 percent today say they are "very liberal" and 12 percent are "very conservative." Three years ago, 9 percent were very liberal and 13 percent were very conservative.

Residents 34 and under (40%) and 35 to 54 (44%) are much less likely to call themselves conservatives than are those 55 and older (56%). Likewise, residents aged 18 to 34 are the most likely to call themselves liberals (33%), dropping to 29 percent among 35- to 54-year-olds and 18 percent among those 55 and older.

Residents earning less than $36,000 are less likely to call themselves conservatives (43%) than are those earning $80,000 or more (53%). There are no differences by region.

Homeowners (47%) are more likely to call themselves conservatives than are renters (40%).

There are no differences in political orientation by education, presence of children or gender.

By party, 64 percent of Republicans call themselves middle-of-the-road or somewhat conservative. Fifteen percent of Republicans say they are liberal and 21 percent say they are very conservative.

Among Democrats, 49 percent say they are middle-of-the-road or somewhat conservative, while 47 percent of Democrats describe themselves as liberals and 4 percent say they are very conservative.

The political profiles of Democrats and Republicans are unchanged over time.

Democrats and Republicans do not differ sharply in age. Thirty-seven percent of Democrats are under 35, 40 percent are aged 35 to 54 and 23 percent are 55 or older. Thirty-four percent of Republicans are under 35, 38 percent are 35 to 54 and 28 percent are 55 and older.

However, there are major differences in location. Twenty-six percent of Democrats live in the South County, compared with 35 percent of Republicans. Twenty-four percent of Democrats live in the Central County, in contrast to 16 percent of Republicans.

Fifty-three percent of Republicans earn more than $50,000 a year, compared to 46 percent of Democrats.

Seventy-two percent of Republicans are homeowners, compared to 61 percent of Democrats.

Forty-eight percent of Republicans are college graduates, compared to 42 percent of Democrats.

Fifty-seven percent of Democrats are women and 43 percent are men. Among Republicans, however, 48 percent are women and 52 percent are men.

This year, in analyzing the special November election, we developed a profile of those Orange County residents who regularly vote in local elections. We defined the likely voters as those who say they have voted in four or more elections in the past four years. These would be, for instance, voters who are most likely to turn out to vote in the June primaries and November general elections.

Eighty-eight percent of the frequent voters are Caucasian and not Hispanic, 80 percent are aged 35 years or older, 77 percent are homeowners, 65 percent have no children at home, 56 percent have household incomes over $50,000 and 53 percent are college graduates. Sixty percent are registered to vote as Republicans and 50 percent describe themselves politically as conservatives.