UCI

Conclusions

What does the future hold for Orange County? With crime rising to the forefront of residents' concerns and no relief in sight for a distressed local economy, the county is clearly on a difficult course. Here are the key trends we find in the 1993 Orange County Annual Survey:

Half of residents are now mentioning crime (29%) and the economy (20%) as the most important problems facing the county. Concerns about crime have nearly doubled since 1986. Throughout the 1980s, traffic was considered the most important problem.

Residents continue to be pessimistic about the local economy, with only one in five giving it positive ratings today and four in 10 expecting it to be better two years from now.
These economic trends have led one in three residents to worry that they or someone in their family will lose their job.

Consumer confidence has reached another new low, with only 30 percent of residents describing themselves as "better off" financially now than they were last year, and only four in 10 expecting to be better off next year. Six in 10 expect bad economic times in the nation throughout the next five years.

Residents are significantly more afraid of walking in their neighborhood now than they were a decade ago, and almost half believe their local crime rate is on the rise. Fears are considerably greater for residents earning less than $50,000 a year and living outside the South County region.

Crime victimization is also on the rise, according to local residents. Self-reports of crimes against themselves or an immediate family member in their neighborhood have increased 10 points since 1982. Again, crime is much worse outside the South County and for residents earning less than $36,000 per year.

Orange County, like the rest of Southern California, is in the midst of the most challenging time in its modern history. Many changes are occurring at once. The end of the Cold War has led to military base closings and declines in defense spending. All of this means our economy is undergoing a restructuring that, for now, has job losses as its most visible impact.

Also, Orange County today is experiencing the painful effects of urban growth cycles. First, there was the economic boom of the 1980s, then the contraction of the last few years, leading to rising crime rates and declining government resources to handle the growing social problems. Cities such as Miami, New York, Los Angeles, and Detroit all provide living examples of how the economy affects crime and, ultimately, how crime can affect the economic future. Will middle-class residents move to safer and more prosperous areas? How Orange County copes with the twin problems of the economy and crime will map out its future.

Also, throughout the past decade Orange County and the rest of Southern California have experienced a foreign immigration rivaling the massive influx to America at the beginning of this century. Many residents today are clearly nervous about illegal immigration and the strain of adapting to a multi-cultural society. Fear of crime is often a by-product of distrust toward people of a different race, class, language or religion.

Finally, the Los Angeles riots in the spring of 1992 were a devastating human tragedy seen by millions in Southern California. As Orange County residents saw the outbreak of anarchy and destruction, it certainly raised fundamental concerns about crime and public safety. Since then, residents have become increasingly aware of the problems of crime and gangs in our own neighborhoods, public parks and beaches.

The first visible challenge of the post-Cold War era has been the closing of the El Toro Marine Base. The loss of this facility and the difficulty of the process of converting it to productive civilian use have put residents in a negative frame of mind. A majority (55%) say they have very little or no confidence that local government can devise a plan that will be beneficial to the local economy. Meanwhile, residents themselves are divided on building an airport at the site.

So far, the Orange County that prospered so much in the past few decades appears to be losing the Cold War. The El Toro Marine Air Base conversion is just one part of a larger task ahead. If residents are to become more optimistic about the future, there will have to be a positive vision about rebuilding the economy. Local business organizations, colleges and universities, and local elected officials could all assist in this process. The various branches of local government and the various localities will have to learn to cooperate, or we will be unable to compete for new jobs with other counties and states.

Cooperation will also be needed to meet the challenges of the increasing problem of crime and gangs. This will take the coordination of police and law enforcement, social service agencies and public education. It will require cooperation across city, and perhaps even county, boundaries. Residents might tend to "write off" certain parts of the county as dangerous, and to flee to the safe havens of the South County or outside the county. But crime and gangs are highly mobile in today's society and the trouble cannot be eradicated simply by moving away from the areas that are most troubled at the moment. The problem can only be solved if residents throughout the county make a commitment to improving the social and economic conditions that facilitate the spread of crime and gangs in our society.

But all is not gloomy in 1993. If we take a look at the problems that plagued the county in the 1980s -- such as traffic, growth, the environment, housing -- there are visible signs that progress is being made. Here are some of the positive trends:

Transportation woes have declined. Compared to the late 1980s, fewer commuters are experiencing traffic problems on the way to work, and fewer are reporting that congestion is getting worse. Also, fewer employed residents are driving alone to work.

Rapid population growth is less of a problem. Four in 10 see their localities as growing rapidly, down 23 points from only two years ago. Fewer than half (45%) now complain that the growth control regulations in their communities are not strict enough, down from 59 percent in 1989.

Fears of environmental problems are declining. Today, 43 percent consider environmental problems like air and water pollution to pose a "very serious" threat to their health and well-being, down from 60 percent in 1990. Perhaps people care less about environmental issues in a recession, but the fact that air quality continues to improve also contributes to this trend.

Housing costs have stabilized. After rapid escalation in the 1980s, there has been little change in housing costs so far this decade. Although property values have declined somewhat in the 1990s, six in 10 homeowners still consider buying a home in Orange County to be an excellent or good investment. Fifty-three percent of renters agree. These trends help Orange County remain an attractive location for industry, migrants and residents.

Another positive trend is the rebound in donations to charity. Much of the increase came from residents earning more than $50,000, with half giving more than $500 this year. In households earning $80,000 or more, half gave at least $1,000. Whether this is a one-year blip because of expected changes in the tax laws, or the beginning of a trend in increased giving and community involvement, will not be known for a few years.

Orange County will continue to exert its influence in state and national politics in next year's elections. The Orange County vote in the governor's race will be closely courted, and carefully watched, for further signs of a declining allegiance of Republicans to their party's leaders. The vote for the senate seat will be an indicator of reactions to efforts by the Democratic president and Congress to improve the economy.

The current survey indicates that there have been no wild swings in politics, surprising during these times of social and economic turbulence. About half of voters say they are Republicans, while one in three are Democrats. Three in 10 call themselves "liberals," three in 10 are "middle-of-the-road" and four in 10 are "conservative." Few are found at the extreme ends of the political spectrum. With this profile, Orange County voters are likely to respond to performance and problem-solving, rather than ideology and party loyalty, in next year's election.