UCI

Conclusion

The 1992 Orange County Annual Survey, the eleventh in the series, focuses attention on the issue of jobs and the economy. New questions and an analysis of survey trends over time indicate that local residents are deeply shaken by the current recession.

The recession is now entering its third year, longer than originally expected when it began in the summer of 1990. Many issues have clouded the outlook for economic recovery, such as defense cutbacks, state spending reductions, oversupply of commercial and industrial real estate, downsizing in large companies, and consolidations in the financial industry. This has added to the normal uncertainties that occur in a recession.

To understand current opinions about the local events, we also need to look at the county's economic growth in historical context. In the 1980s, Orange County gained 350,000 jobs, for a growth rate of about 40 percent. While the county gained 475,000 residents last decade, a 24-percent growth rate, employment growth actually outpaced population gains. Between July 1990 and July 1992, however, the county lost about 75,000 jobs. Thus, not only has an era of rapid economic expansion come to an end, but the economy so far in the 1990s has been mostly in reverse.

This year's survey indicates that local trends involving jobs and the economy are fundamentally affecting residents' every-day lives and the public policy agenda. Here are some of the many new trends evident for Orange County in the 1990s:

* Traffic is no longer considered the most serious public policy issue in Orange County, as jobs and the economy and crime have supplanted the perennial Number One complaint.

* Consumer confidence is reaching new lows. Residents have lost faith in the national economy and feel that their own finances are not improving. Fewer renters expect to become homeowners. The local economy is heavily dependent on consumer spending, and these attitudes directly affect the recession.

* Household income growth has stopped, after experiencing healthy gains throughout the 1980s. A combination of layoffs, fewer hours worked, fewer pay raises, less sales commissions and declining interest income has taken a toll on residents' income. Thus, people are feeling much less happy about their finances.

* Charitable giving is down significantly from previous years. Many residents have stopped giving altogether, while others have sharply reduced their donations. Of course, this occurs at a time when charitable needs are growing and funding sources from corporate donors and government are inadequate.

* Residents are also feeling much less charitable toward incumbent office-holders and the party in power. Republican candidates for president and the U.S. Senate had surprising difficulty this year, given the party's 20-point edge in registration here. Frustration over the economy has suspended loyalties and made voters want sweeping change this year.

* Local concerns about environmental issues, growth and development seem to have waned. As economic worries have become more pressing, some residents seem to have placed environmental issues on the back burner. And in reality, growth is less of an issue now, because building has slowed down these past few years.

* Previously viewed skeptically and twice rejected by voters, transportation projects funded by Measure M sales tax revenues are seen favorably during the current economic downturn. Many are noticing improvements due to Measure M funds, and most are satisfied with the way the money is being spent. These public works projects are creating jobs and improving the infrastructure, having short- and long-term economic benefits.

* The recession may create a new willingness on the part of some commuters to move from solo driving. Traffic congestion and environmental concerns in the 1980s had little impact on the numbers of people driving alone to work. Today, however, many express an interest in public transit and carpooling. Personal savings in carpooling, and financial incentives offered to employees who carpool or take public transit, could do much to change driving habits in the current economic climate.

* Residents seem to place greater importance on "high tech" industries such as computers and biotechnology for the county's future growth, while showing less enthusiasm about traditional leading industries such as aerospace and real estate. There is a belief that the local economy needs to change with the times.

Until the local recovery begins, either through self-correction or government intervention, the issue of "jobs and the economy" is likely to be the dominant concern in Orange County.

Local governments need to address the role they should play in handling the issue of jobs and the economy. Should local governments wait for federal and state policy efforts, or should they lobby higher levels for certain economic policy initiatives, or should they strike out on their own to stimulate the local economy? Should city and county governments develop economic proposals cooperatively, or act individually to improve the local economy? Should local governments and local corporations undertake joint efforts to improve the economy?

Last year, the Orange County Annual Survey predicted a shift in public concerns and policy issues in the 1990s. The 1992 results indicate the need for continued monitoring of the economic issues that directly and indirectly affect local residents, government and businesses in these difficult times.